Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – momentarily – to have been defused. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action
The chain of opposing developments captured the harsh reality of the recent timeframe. By day, political struggles are waged: optimistic declarations are issued from multiple capitals. Immense energy is allocated on restraining specific proposals. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "settlement".
Nocturnal Warfare
As the offensive progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from enemy soil, a capability enabled by current data. From witness perspectives, military aircraft that had been deployed to counter approaching cruise missiles roared overhead – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: several firings fired to intercept a incoming threat. This was a advanced protection mechanism at work, presumably supplied through allied countries. Every launch shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly gives way to sober acceptance: perhaps the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from devastation and further power outages.
Persistent Threats
Soon after, a heavy machine gun engaged a drone somewhere nearby, part of a defensive team – most likely Western-made equipment. Unfortunately, the bullets missed the enemy aircraft – it maintained course toward its objective.
With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the early updates: multiple fatalities, devastation and heating outages in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – enduring hostilities. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on Western support – a need that regional partners are clearly incapable to substitute in the short term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from American leadership provoked deep reactions, debate and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.
Every new proposal from US leadership follows the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually secure success. This trend will, no doubt, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of consistently pushing Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington works based on a premise understood by experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration assumes that it is unfeasible to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the land that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from assuming that the situation will not change more in its benefit in the months ahead.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be many attempts to achieve ceasefire, but they will persist as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding people and territory but averting a entire defensive failure until circumstances change in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Objectively, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: personal goals to mediate resolution and secure international recognition, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to estrange crucial supporters, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their objective will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to eliminate the 28 points of the current initiative. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.
While new proposals based on established approaches are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show certain reluctance to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, mainly require continued Western support.
