Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the nation and unleashed turmoil, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent writers from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly tense and seismic public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator stated. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the governmental, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a series of lectures that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say this point is looming, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the notion but the actual thinking which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has gone on in academia but very few politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They writes two articles that seek objectivity in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Debates cover national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The goal is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there hasn't quite been a debate," commented O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they support unification but refuse increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin does need to work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is other than just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is probable and that it could happen suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid arguments, he said. "One side will prevail in this matter and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has got something to learn from the alternative viewpoints."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster must join the discussion, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
